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Will Missouri's Races Go Down To The Wire?

by Joseph D. Lyons

March 15 is one of the biggest bang-for-your-buck days for the remaining candidates looking to snag delegates. The third iteration of Super Tuesday offers the second most delegates up for grabs in a single day. It may be even more important than the original Super Tuesday in deciding who will become the GOP nominee. As for the Dems, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sander continue to slog it out. Though Missouri is hardly one of the most discussed states up for grabs, it could play a significant role. That brings us to Missouri primary's results: when do they come out and why do they matter for both parties?

The polls close in Missouri at 7 p.m. local time, or 8 p.m. ET. Then begins the counting, but preliminary results should be updated during the count. An election night reporting program from the Missouri Secretary of State will let you break down the live results to a county level. It may take a while to know who wins, though.

It will all depend on how close the results are. In the GOP race, polls show Trump ahead of Cruz, but there has just been one poll, and he's only ahead by seven points. As for the Democrats, Clinton is also ahead by seven points, far smaller than her lead going into Michigan, where Sanders ultimately won. Both leads are within the margin of error. Unless exit polls show a wide margin, we could be waiting for all of the votes to be counted before knowing the winner.

In the Republican race, 52 delegates will be awarded in Missouri. While far fewer than Ohio's or Florida's troves of delegates, they could become winner-takes-all if one candidate were to win the majority of the state, more than 50 percent. The same could also be true if a candidate wins all the congressional districts. If Trump were to win Missouri and Illinois, he would still be well on his way to the nomination — even if he loses both Ohio and Florida. The Democrats continue to award things proportionally, and Missouri's 71 pledged delegates are not an exception. Both Clinton and Sanders have been in Missouri campaigning.

In 2012, Rick Santorum won Missouri along with a few other states, and he was giving his victory speech by 11 p.m. ET. But don't assume things will go that quickly this year. He won the Missouri primary by about 30 percentage points with 55 percent of the vote. Mitt Romney followed with just 25 percent. Neither the Republican nor Democratic races seem like they will be such a big blowout.

So take out your pen and paper — or make an Excel spreadsheet — and tally down these delegate counts as the results roll in. You'll soon have a better idea how long this nominating process will last.