Here's just how successful this movie is going to be: It hasn't even been released in theaters, and already, it's predicted to break records. According to Nikki Finke at Deadline, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire is set to earn between $140 million and $150 million on its opening weekend, if tracking numbers remain accurate for the next three weeks. In other words — it's going to be a hit.
As the report points out, those numbers would easily put it on track to match the first installment's opening gross last year, which was $152.5 million — and allow it to beat the current record-holder for November, Twilight: New Moon, which grossed $142.8 million when it opened in 2009. Anything that beats Twilight is always an A+ in my book, so this makes me way more excited than it should. Crush the competition, Katniss!
The numbers, to be specific, track pre-sales, audience awareness of a film, and advertising reach — but they aren't always a sure thing. There's still three weeks until the film is released, and tracking isn't always accurate, so we could very well see less or more gross when Catching Fire actually hits theaters next month. It's likely to be more, given Jennifer Lawrence's massive jump in fame, and all the marketing that Lionsgate has been dishing out for the film, but you never know.
More proof that this should be taken with a grain of salt: While Deadline is projecting an opening up to $150 million, Variety's actually reporting it'll be more in the range of $185 million, which would make it the year's biggest opening — above Iron Man 3's $174 million debut in May. Alternatively, BoxOffice.com is predicting an opening of $168 million. Generally, the higher that pre-tracking predicts, the less likely it becomes — so while Catching Fire is sure to be a hit, it's really just a matter of how big of a hit at this point.
Catching Fire is set to hit theaters on Nov. 22, 2013. Until then, watch its trailer on repeat.
